Snowmegedon 2009

Airports are shutting down, traffic is snarling, schools are closed, and even the national morning news is basically freaking out about the snow... it is causing Snowmegeddon across the US...Wait, Snowmegeddon? Really?

If you paid too much attention to the newscasters you would think that the US has been shut down by a “Day after Tomorrow” snowstorm. In reality while it is dumping some snow across the Northeast, and hitting some funky spots in the Southeast, most of the country isn’t even seeing rain let alone snow.

I wish it was snowmegeddon...I have the perfect battle plan already set up. Check it out...I have been training these guys since 1981! We are totally going to kick ass.



Anyway enough about my hopes and dreams...on to the forecast.



The West Coast is getting a solid dusting

I maybe was a being a little hasty in my “most of the country isn’t even seeing rain let alone snow” comment...there is actually a solid winter storm that is moving across the Pacific NW and the Sierra Nevada. This system has already dropped about 10-15” of snow for many areas over the last 24 hours and it looks like we are going to see another 2-feet plus of new snow over the next 2 days. This system is going to stretch from British Columbia down through Central California...about the only place that isn’t going to get new snow is SoCal since the storm sort of slips past to the north.

Right now the forecasts are showing Tahoe (including June and Mammoth areas) and up in British Columbia are going to be the hardest hit areas...but expect some solid new snow at all of the higher elevation resorts between those two areas as well.

The Rockies

The Rockies, and most of Idaho and MT, are looking a bit dry right now. High-pressure is holding over the central US and it looks like this area is going to have to wait a few days for any serious snow. It looks like some minimal snowfall occurring on Tuesday but with a bigger storm looming in the long-range for next weekend.

A lot is going to depend on how much moisture gets sucked out of the storm battering the Pacific NW...if it can hold onto a little water and energy the Rockies could get some decent snow over Saturday and Sunday of next weekend. I would keep an eye on the local weather forecasts as we get closer to the end of next week.

The Northeast

Today actually looks like the last day of snowmegeddon for the NE...yeah there is a shitload of snow that dropped in areas that normally don’t see that much (like NY City)...but it looks like the worst is over and the low that dragged all that moisture up from the SE is actually moving out into the North Atlantic (in order to head over and shaft Europe a bit).

I expect that the region will start to clear up but keep some chilly winds as the storm moves offshore. Look for just a bit of trace snow over the next couple of days as high-pressure builds back in behind the storm front.

If you don’t mind the winds the storm just dropped a foot or more of new snow on the local resorts...seems like it would be a good time to grab a few freshies.

Long-range we can expect the storm over on the west coast to make its way across the US and eventually move through the Northeast region later in the upcoming weekend...probably setting up some funky wind, and possibly more snow, by early next week.

Check back the next forecast will be heading your way on Monday!

West Coast Winter Storm

The snowfall on the Sierras here in February 2009 has been silly…and it looks like the west coast is about to get another solid dump as a new winter storm moves in over the next 24 hours.

Just to put it in perspective...we have already seen several feet of snow all over California and Oregon over the last couple of weeks. Mammoth for example has had nearly 70” of snow so far this February, which equals what they are reporting for all of January 2009. The total base for the mountain is averaging between 10-15 feet.

We have already seen several inches of new snow over the last couple of days but the real storm is just starting to arrive and the current forecasts are calling for nearly 1-2 FEET of new snow throughout most of the California Sierra Nevadas over the next 24 hours. Check out the latest National Map from NOAA and the National weather service…just a quick FYI…it is never good to see “red” colors on these maps.



NERD Alert – (skip this part if science and weather stuff gives you a headache). This storm is another one of those cold/wet – warm/wet mixes that I have talked about over the last couple of months. Basically you are getting a nice cold low from the North and a very warm, moisture laden, low-pressure from the mid-latitudes. When these two mix it is like throwing gasoline onto a fire…all the latent heat energy from the warm storm cools rapidly and the air looses its ability to hold water vapor…and bingo, shit (rain, snow, hail, smog) starts falling from the sky. When we have a really dynamic mix of those two storms (like we do right now) over the mountains it cools and lifts so rapidly that it snows, a lot, like “holy crap” a lot. Check out the water vapor image…that is the storm just off the coast.



Anyway…So with this new storm we can expect at minimum 6-10” for most west coast ski resorts.

Snowfall in California looks like it will be heavier since the lows are mixing right around central California. Southern California ski areas can expect nearly 10-15” of new snow. So can Mammoth and other Central California areas. Northern Cal around Shasta and the Oregon border will have similar snowfall totals…but it may be a bit lighter in the Tahoe area for some reason. With this much snow getting to the mountain and the actual “ski conditions” are going to be pretty nasty for the next couple of days. We may want to hold off till midweek, or at least until the heavy part of the storm blows through.

Oregon resorts like Mt Hood and Mt Bachelor have seen nearly 20”+ of new powder since last Tuesday…and they have more scheduled for the next 24-36 hours. It won’t be as heavy as California but those regions can expect another 5-10” as well.

Eventually this storm does move out east and drops some snow on the Rockies…I actually expect more snow in Colorado and Utah from this bad boy…but Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming should all see some new powder as well.

The East Coast/Great Lakes region will have some of this storm later this week…closer to Wednesday/Thursday for the GL…and Thursday/Friday for the NE…but the majority of the energy is going to get pushed up into Canada and so it won’t do as much damage as we are going to see out west.

Long-range is showing another low holding off the West Coast later this week…maybe even another mix of warm/cold lows. The current forecast isn’t very clear on when it will actually start to make landfall but we could see some more new snow early next week.

Weather Guy: Snow Turkeys

Snow over the last few days across the US has been pretty sparse except for the Great Lakes areas that seem to get a near constant level of lake-effect snowfall.

The good news is that we are going to see a lot of new storm activity over the next few days that will be bringing plenty of snow across most of the country as we head into the holiday weekend.

Right now we have a storm pushing over the Great Lakes and Mid-East states that will actually stall in place for a couple of days before pushing up over the Northeast part of the Country. We can expect a few inches of snow across resorts in NY, Vermont, and eventually up in New Hampshire and Maine. Whiteface in NY and Sugarbush in VT are both showing some new snowfall, and it looks like 2-4” more will fall in the next coupel of days.

Check out the current NWS national map…


The biggest white circle is the low-center that is anchoring over the Great Lakes…you can even see the cold font trailing down through the South and over Texas, potentially setting up some wild weather for those areas (but no snow so really I don’t think we care).

The other interesting thing on that map is the second smaller low that is forming off the California Coast. It is this storm (and one to the north) that is going to help drive the snowfall for the next week.

This little storm is a warmer low than something that would form at the higher latitudes. Since it has a wet-airmass it is able to hold a lot more moisture than a colder system would. What ends up happening is that this wet-low moves over the colder drier airmass stretched across the Midwest/Pacific NW areas and starts to take on the same characteristics. As is cools and gains altitude it looses its ability to hold water and since it cools rapidly in the higher elevations…bam!...we start to see new snow.

Since this low moves across the US and eventually links up with another colder low coming out of Canada we can expect more snow for California Resorts like Mammoth and Tahoe during the early part of the week. The Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming resorts will have new snow by midweek and the Northeast areas get more snow by the end of the week. Like I said…lots of new snow…lets cross our fingers that it starts breaking open the resorts so we can get some good early season riding in.

Check out the national weather forecast for the next few days.

Monday Morning

Tuesday Night

Thursday Morning

Just what we like to see…lots of purple and blue in the Mountain areas.

Long-range it looks like a few more storms lining up out the back in the North Pacific. Looks like we could see a few solid snowfalls over the next couple of weeks.

Check back next Monday for the latest update.