Sunday, December 14, 2008

Old Man Winter Breaks Loose!

Winter is certainly starting to kick in over on the West Coast…storm action started to move in on Saturday and Sunday and it looks like the most intense portion of the storm train will be arriving over the next 24-48 hours.

This is good news since we have been waiting a while for some significant snowfall…oh we had a couple of sweet early season storms that teased us with some decent November snow, but mother nature went all wonky on us and cranked down the screws on the storm track. It let us get a couple of weeks of fun surf but no new powpow.

The east coast has been on marginal side as well but these systems moving into California and the West are generally considered “upstream” of the East Coast Resorts…so it they come down heavy on the Westside they usually produce as they move out east.

The West Coast is already seeing the leading edge of the new storm action…you can even see it on the HI-DEF Radar on Weather.Fox.com…check it out. (I see some lovely ice-blue landing on the Sierras.)



You can expect this activity to push further east and eventually spread through most of the midwest (from Cali to Colorado and up into Idaho and Wyoming as well).

Right now California Resorts like Mammoth and Heavenly, pretty much anywhere in the Central/Sierras but particularly throughout the Tahoe Basin, are expecting 10-15” of new snow over the next couple of days.

This storm dries out a bit as it pushes towards the Rockies but many of the Resort areas on the windward side of the mountains can expect about 3-5” of new snow as we head toward Tuesday.

The Midwest states are also seeing a front move through but this one is a bit warm…at least currently. You can see that it is producing mostly rain (and sometimes ice) but no new real snowfall.



This is being followed by a very cold ridge of high pressure that is effectively pushing the front along and is cooling temps enough in its wake that it is producing some snow around Minnesota and the upper Great Lakes areas.

You can see a great example of this ridge on the NWS temperature charts…look at the frigid temps spread across most of the Rockies and the Dakotas.



That cold air-mass is going to hold in place and let the new storms approaching from the west smash into it sort of like a big ass jetty in the ocean…as the storms “break” against the cold air they will get even less stable than they already are and will start dropping snow.

You can see what I mean on the bigger NWS national map…



Anyway the long-range forecast is going to unfold a bit like this. The storms hitting California will push off to the east after dumping snow across most of the Sierras, parts of Nevada, and eventually Utah/Idaho.

The storm will dry out a bit as it passes over the Rockies mid-week but it should still be able to set up some light snowfall for the Midwest. By Friday the storm will get some more reinforcement of wetter air as it drifts up from the SE and helps to add some moisture to the mix as the low-pressure eventually pushes over the NE states.

By next Friday New York, and the New England states should be seeing another round of snowfall with some heavy stuff falling around the Eastern Great Lakes and across western NY and VT.

Things look a little less snowy for next week but don’t dwell in it… that is a waaaays out on the forecast charts and we could see things change pretty fast…try and enjoy this week!

Have a good one! Next forecast will be on Monday December 22nd (I hope Santa brings me another foot of powder!).

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