Plenty of White Stuff

While we aren’t going to see the wholesale dumping that we had across the country over Christmas it does look like we are going to have some fairly healthy activity for the resorts in the Pacific Northwest, The Northern Rockies, and the Northeastern States.

We really got hit pretty hard over the first part of the Holiday vacation. For example some areas of Southern California, which isn’t known for its might snowfalls, had nearly 3-4’ of snow falling in a single day (crazy!). These storm system made its way across the US and just worked a grip of resorts as it headed east. In particular the Utah and Wyoming Resorts had a ton of new snow…so much in fact that Jackson Hole had an avalanche which caused an in-bounds fatality. Check out the Fuel.tv story here.

Avalanche Kills Skier in Jackson Hole

It is always important to remember that our sport has a lot of risks…and while new snow is awesome on some levels it can create some very hazardous conditions at the same time. Please be safe out there.

As for the forecast we currently have a mix of high-pressure holding position across most of the middle of the country with pockets stretching from Southern California over to Texas and into the Midwest states. Further North we have one stormy low-pressure that is moving over the Great Lakes and into the NE…creating, wait for it, more lake-effect snow.

There is also a semi-new low-pressure moving into the Pacific NW sending in a ton of rain for the Coastal areas, even some potential flash floods for Oregon and Northern California coasts. This is also brining plenty of snow to the higher elevations…at this point Mt. Hood looks like it will have another 12-15” of snow over the next couple of days…and probably more later in the week as well.

Check out the current analysis map for the US and you can see the active areas.



Here are how some of the resorts are going to fair over the next few days.

West Coast Resorts

Mammoth Mountain
Base: 64-100”
New Surface: none
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”

Heavenly Mountain Resort
Base: 34-48”
New Surface: nope
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”

Mt Hood
Base: 17-52”
New Surface: incoming
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 10-15”

Whistler / Blackcomb
Base: 32”
New Surface: 1”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”

Rocky Mountain Resorts

Sun Valley
Base: 42-48”
New Surface: none
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 4-6”

Jackson Hole
Base: 58-72”
New Surface: 8-10”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 5-7”

Aspen / Snowmass
Base: 22-32”
New Surface: none
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”


East Coast Resorts

Whiteface
Base: 26-32”
New Surface: 0”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 1-2”

Sugarbush Resort
Base: 26-48”
New Surface: 0”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”

Black Mountain
Base: 15-36”
New Surface: 0”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 0”

Long-Range Outlook

Like I said above long-range is continuing to look pretty active for the Northern States…basically draw a line from the border of Northern California across the US and anything above that line is going to see a couple of lows push across over the next couple of days. The current front moves out of the Pacific NW and drops some snow across Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas through the middle of the week. Another strong system starts the same process later in the week so it looks like more snow for those areas by the weekend.






Anyways that is what I got for the winter forecast…I’ll be back next Monday with the new update.

A Freaking White Christmas!

I hope you all get new snow gear for the holidays…’cause we are going to have a lot of snow coming down over the next week.

We just had a nice storm system batter the West Coast dropping 3-4’ of snow across most of the Sierras from Southern California all the way up through Oregon/Washington and British Colombia (isn’t that the 52nd state or something yet?...just kidding, all you Canadians can save the death threats for another time). Anyway that storm had pushed off the east and has been dumping all sorts of snow across the Northeast US.



Even some of the other Fuel.tv bloggers have been posting about the snow that fell last week. Check out this update from Mt Bachelor in Oregon. 3-feet of freshies!

http://fueltv.fuel.tv/FUELTVED/blogs/view/4874?item=35020&type=Blog

The best news is that Mother Nature isn’t taking much holiday time off…if anything she is just taking a couple of short days to reload the storm track. Already we are seeing another cold front moving in from the Gulf of Alaska and more warm moist lows moving up from around Mainland Mexico. The result is a bunch of unstable air moving over the US West Coast that is already starting to drop new snow on the Sierras. HIDEF (High-Def yo!) radar is already seeing some action.




This new storm will dump anywhere from 6-8” of new snow for most resorts in the affected areas on Monday and into Tuesday. Oregon Resorts like Mount Hood will actually get the brunt of the storm and current forecasts are calling for nearly a foot to a foot and a half of fresh powder over the next couple of days. Here are a few of the top West Coast resorts and how they fair for the first part of our holiday vacation.

West Coast Resorts

Mammoth Mountain
Base: 38-72”
New Surface: none yet
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 4-6”

Heavenly Mountain Resort
Base: 26”
New Surface: wait for it
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 6-8”

Mt Hood
Base: 17-24”
New Surface: hurry up will ya
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 10-15”

Whistler / Blackcomb
Base: 29”
New Surface: 6” it is snowing right now eh!
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 1-3”

The storm eventually moves out over the Rockies and sort of bunches up over Idaho and Wyoming, while Colorado sees a new front from the South start to energize some of the snowfall on the Eastern Side of the Rockies. Looks like the heaviest snowfall hits on the Western ranges of the Rockies but I would expect a decent drop all across the mountains from CO up into Canada.

Check out the NW Forecast for Tuesday (Which is when the storm really moves into the area).




Rocky Mountain Resorts

Sun Valley
Base: 14-22”
New Surface: none yet
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 6-10”

Jackson Hole
Base: 34-41”
New Surface: none yet
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 10-15”

Aspen / Snowmass
Base: 20-30”
New Surface: 1 angry inch!
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 6-10”

Eventually this storm pushes further east and helps stoke up more Lake-Effect Snow…and helps to dump a lot more snow across the Northeast outside of the (totally shafted) lake areas.

East Coast Resorts

Whiteface
Base: 24-30”
New Surface: 8”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 4-6”

Sugarbush Resort
Base: 20-56”
New Surface: 9”
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 6-8”

Black Mountain
Base: 15-36”
New Surface: 8-10” John Holms style!
Snow Forecast Next 2 Days: 6-10”

Long-Range Outlook

While this week’s snowfall is looking good…it isn’t the end…we still have a couple of new storms brewing in the pipeline. In particular there is another, strong-looking, low-pressure that is going to pull together just off the Pacific NW/California Coast right around Christmas and move onshore later as we head into the weekend following Christmas. Right now I am expecting at minimum another 6”+ of new snow (and probably much more) from this system as it moves over the Sierras…and lots more for the resorts further eastward as it eventually moves that way before the new years.

Anyways that is what I got for the winter forecast…I’ll be back next Monday with the new update. In the meantime…Let it snow!

Southern California Local Ski Resort Update – Some damn good snow

Gang the local mountains got dumped on over the last few days...which has been great for the resorts but bad for the roads (and trying to get to the resorts).

A friend of mine headed up to Bear on Thursday and said it took nearly 4 hours to get from HB up to the mountain but once there that it was awesome with power everywhere. Anyway I thought I would throw up the latest Ski Conditions for the local resorts so you can check them out...if you head up that way, at minimum you are going to need chains but a 4x4 with chains would be the best call.

Bear Mountain
Base Depth: 3-5 feet on open runs
New Snow (week total): 3-4 feet (which is why it is good)
New Snow Forecast: Possibility of some light snowfall and lower elevation rain Monday/Tuesday

Snow Summit
Base Depth: 3-5 feet on open runs
New Snow (week total): 3-4 feet (which is why it is good)
New Snow Forecast: Possibility of some light snowfall and lower elevation rain Monday/Tuesday

Mt. High
Base Depth: 2-4 feet
New Snow (week total): 3.5 to 4.5 feet
New Snow Forecast: Possibility of some light snowfall and lower elevation rain Monday/Tuesday

Mt. Baldy
Base Depth: 3-4 feet
New Snow (week total): 2-3 feet on Wednesday
New Snow Forecast: Possibility of some light snowfall and lower elevation rain Monday/Tuesday

Mammoth Mountain
Base Depth: 3-6 feet
New Snow (week total): 4 feet
New Snow Forecast: Looks clear through Saturday but then new storms move in from the NW bringing a few more inches of new snow over late Sunday/Monday. More snow expected as we head toward Christmas.

Old Man Winter Breaks Loose!

Winter is certainly starting to kick in over on the West Coast…storm action started to move in on Saturday and Sunday and it looks like the most intense portion of the storm train will be arriving over the next 24-48 hours.

This is good news since we have been waiting a while for some significant snowfall…oh we had a couple of sweet early season storms that teased us with some decent November snow, but mother nature went all wonky on us and cranked down the screws on the storm track. It let us get a couple of weeks of fun surf but no new powpow.

The east coast has been on marginal side as well but these systems moving into California and the West are generally considered “upstream” of the East Coast Resorts…so it they come down heavy on the Westside they usually produce as they move out east.

The West Coast is already seeing the leading edge of the new storm action…you can even see it on the HI-DEF Radar on Weather.Fox.com…check it out. (I see some lovely ice-blue landing on the Sierras.)



You can expect this activity to push further east and eventually spread through most of the midwest (from Cali to Colorado and up into Idaho and Wyoming as well).

Right now California Resorts like Mammoth and Heavenly, pretty much anywhere in the Central/Sierras but particularly throughout the Tahoe Basin, are expecting 10-15” of new snow over the next couple of days.

This storm dries out a bit as it pushes towards the Rockies but many of the Resort areas on the windward side of the mountains can expect about 3-5” of new snow as we head toward Tuesday.

The Midwest states are also seeing a front move through but this one is a bit warm…at least currently. You can see that it is producing mostly rain (and sometimes ice) but no new real snowfall.



This is being followed by a very cold ridge of high pressure that is effectively pushing the front along and is cooling temps enough in its wake that it is producing some snow around Minnesota and the upper Great Lakes areas.

You can see a great example of this ridge on the NWS temperature charts…look at the frigid temps spread across most of the Rockies and the Dakotas.



That cold air-mass is going to hold in place and let the new storms approaching from the west smash into it sort of like a big ass jetty in the ocean…as the storms “break” against the cold air they will get even less stable than they already are and will start dropping snow.

You can see what I mean on the bigger NWS national map…



Anyway the long-range forecast is going to unfold a bit like this. The storms hitting California will push off to the east after dumping snow across most of the Sierras, parts of Nevada, and eventually Utah/Idaho.

The storm will dry out a bit as it passes over the Rockies mid-week but it should still be able to set up some light snowfall for the Midwest. By Friday the storm will get some more reinforcement of wetter air as it drifts up from the SE and helps to add some moisture to the mix as the low-pressure eventually pushes over the NE states.

By next Friday New York, and the New England states should be seeing another round of snowfall with some heavy stuff falling around the Eastern Great Lakes and across western NY and VT.

Things look a little less snowy for next week but don’t dwell in it… that is a waaaays out on the forecast charts and we could see things change pretty fast…try and enjoy this week!

Have a good one! Next forecast will be on Monday December 22nd (I hope Santa brings me another foot of powder!).

Oooh look snow!

Great news…after sort of a slow week of new snow it looks like our storm track is finally putting it back into gear and we should see new snow for most of the Pacific NW, the Rockies, and the Northeast resorts.

In fact we already have a nice low-pressure moving across the country that is dropping new snow on the Rockies, the northern Midwest States, the Southern Great Lakes, and the New York/Vermont areas. Check it out…the blue color = new snow.



It hasn’t dropped a ton of snow yet but many of the Colorado resorts like Aspen and Vail are expecting somewhere between 5-8 inches over Monday night and into Tuesday morning. The already have a rideable base a few of the resorts so this is only going to help break it open.

Here is the latest NWS National Map…you can see that low-pressure is extending down from Canada and is merging with some wetter/warmer low-pressure around the middle of the US…it is this front and the energy being transferred out of the warmer/wet low that is kickstarting the snowfall.



High pressure rebuilds across the middle of the US as we move through the middle of the week and pushes a lot of the cooler weather/snowfall up into Canada so most of the US resorts will see better weather but less snow as we head through Tuesday...



Things do start to get really interesting as we head toward next weekend…it looks like a heavy duty ridge of high pressure will develop out in the NPAC but stay off of land…which in turn creates a vacuum of low-pressure around the West Coast and through to the Rockies…this looks like it will draw up some moist air from the South and some colder airmass from the North and mix it all up over most of Western Half of the US. This, plus the cooler air from the North will set up some ideal snow producing conditions and the forecast models are showing a pretty large area of potential new snow.



So it looks like we could lots of fun conditions and new powder for the next few days, particularly through Colorado and up around British Columbia. Then things settle down through the middle of the week before lighting back up as we head toward next weekend. Hopefully we will get some super-dump as we get closer to the holiday break.

Have a good one...next forecast will be posted on Monday Dec 15th!

Snowfall is looking light this week

The snow/winter season had a good start over the last couple of weeks (Check out the East Coast Shred Report #1) but despite some early snowfalls we are still seeing some large enough gaps between storms that base-depths around the country are still a little sparse.

This week doesn’t look like it is going to help that much either.

Right now we have a broad area of high-pressure that is holding over most of the Southwest Region and the lower portion of the Rockies that is keeping most of the mid-latitude storm activity in check.

There are a couple of colder low-pressures that are slipping through around the Canda/US border that are sneaking some light snowfall across the higher latitudes and the near ever-present lake-effect snow over by the Great Lakes areas but other than those two spots there just isn’t enough dynamic weather occurring that we need to help pour on the snow.

Check out the latest NWS map…you can see those high pressures holding over the Central/SW United States.



The next few days aren’t super promising either…







But as we get closer to the end of the week things do start to improve a touch as more storm activity starts to push in from the Gulf of Alaska



The long-range forecast is looking a bit better…in particular there are quite a few strong storms brewing up in the North Pacific right now, (cranking out some large surf for exposed areas as well).

I know, I know…Adam, why should we care about something happening way out over the ocean?

Well it comes down to atmospheric circulation…the storms that occur over land generally don’t just spring up all by themselves, they are always influenced by the storm track as a whole, not just one little section of it. So if the storm track, even several thousand miles out to sea becomes more active it means that more energy for storm development is available to the “whole” storm track, which eventually will translate into more unstable weather over your favorite resort, which equals snow and fun for us.

With what I am seeing in the North Pacific right now and the way that the forecast charts are starting to behave waaaay out at the end of the GFS wind model run, I think that we are going to start to see a couple of stronger systems lining up for the US mainland by the middle of next week…how much snow remains to be seen but at least the storm activity will be more favorable than what we have right now.

Weather Guy: Snow Turkeys

Snow over the last few days across the US has been pretty sparse except for the Great Lakes areas that seem to get a near constant level of lake-effect snowfall.

The good news is that we are going to see a lot of new storm activity over the next few days that will be bringing plenty of snow across most of the country as we head into the holiday weekend.

Right now we have a storm pushing over the Great Lakes and Mid-East states that will actually stall in place for a couple of days before pushing up over the Northeast part of the Country. We can expect a few inches of snow across resorts in NY, Vermont, and eventually up in New Hampshire and Maine. Whiteface in NY and Sugarbush in VT are both showing some new snowfall, and it looks like 2-4” more will fall in the next coupel of days.

Check out the current NWS national map…


The biggest white circle is the low-center that is anchoring over the Great Lakes…you can even see the cold font trailing down through the South and over Texas, potentially setting up some wild weather for those areas (but no snow so really I don’t think we care).

The other interesting thing on that map is the second smaller low that is forming off the California Coast. It is this storm (and one to the north) that is going to help drive the snowfall for the next week.

This little storm is a warmer low than something that would form at the higher latitudes. Since it has a wet-airmass it is able to hold a lot more moisture than a colder system would. What ends up happening is that this wet-low moves over the colder drier airmass stretched across the Midwest/Pacific NW areas and starts to take on the same characteristics. As is cools and gains altitude it looses its ability to hold water and since it cools rapidly in the higher elevations…bam!...we start to see new snow.

Since this low moves across the US and eventually links up with another colder low coming out of Canada we can expect more snow for California Resorts like Mammoth and Tahoe during the early part of the week. The Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming resorts will have new snow by midweek and the Northeast areas get more snow by the end of the week. Like I said…lots of new snow…lets cross our fingers that it starts breaking open the resorts so we can get some good early season riding in.

Check out the national weather forecast for the next few days.

Monday Morning

Tuesday Night

Thursday Morning

Just what we like to see…lots of purple and blue in the Mountain areas.

Long-range it looks like a few more storms lining up out the back in the North Pacific. Looks like we could see a few solid snowfalls over the next couple of weeks.

Check back next Monday for the latest update.

Will work for pow-pow

Things are looking a little slow this week weatherwise…well at least from a snowfall standpoint.

Right now we have the remnants of cold-front that pushed over the East Coast early in the weekend finally starting to move out. There is still a bit of lake-effect snowfall around the NE states…in particular western NY and Northern PA seem to be seeing some decent droppage. Check out the Fox Weather HIDEF radar…



The 2-4” is probably being generous but any resorts in the area will be able to capitalize on the cold conditions and add some man-made to the natural stuff.

Here is the NWS snowfall forecast…you can see that the lake-effect snow is going to hang around for at least a day. This is showing the conditions for Monday night. Right now there aren’t many resorts open in this region but it does look like many will be opening as we head into next weekend.



Unfortunately the rest of the country is looking pretty sparse…with this map the white stuff equals bad. I am not expecting any new snow for the other regions.

The culprit is a broad ridge of high pressure that is filling in behind the storm that moved off the East Coast. There are actually 2 ridges that are blending into one large high-pressure and is extended from the southwest US through the Rockies.



Looking further out in the forecast snowfall conditions do improve. We are going to see a new storm moving out of the North Pacific and over the northwest US. Check out the extended NWS forecast map…



You can see that the storm, which has some warmer air-mass in it, doesn’t do much for snowfall along the West Coast Coastal ranges but it does start to cool off as it moves inland. By Friday and into early Saturday we can expect new snowfall in Eastern Washington, Northern Idaho, and Western Montana. Right now it doesn’t look particularly heavy but a lot will depend on how the storm behaves as it actually starts to develop.

So to sum up…not much happening for the next few days…just a bit of snow around the Great Lakes for the next 24-48 hours, then things slow down by midweek. Further out we will have new storm activity pushing over the NW as we head into the weekend.

Have a great week!

Snow-Forecast Outlook – National Roundup (Yeehaw!)

(11/09/2008) - Well the US snow season is getting off to a good start…I am already seeing some reports of resorts starting to open across the country...hell some of them are reporting that they are starting operations earlier this year than they ever have before. Here check out this link from one of the other Fuel.tv bloggers…

FiveSpot: Snowboard Season Has Started!

Anyway on to the forecast.

Right now we have a couple of storms/cold fronts pushing across the US…in particular there are two areas of severe weather, one over the Northwest US and the other holding over the Northeast, that are showing some potential for snowfall. Check out the weather.fox.com HiDef radar…you can see that the storm in the Northeast is cropping up activity in areas that traditionally get some lake effect weather.



Over in the Northwest we have a good sized low-pressure moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and over the US mainland…stretching the bad weather from the Pacific NW out to the Rockies.

What makes this storm even more interesting is there is a warmer mid-latitude low-pressure starting to interact from the Southwest that is helping to add some energy into the colder storm in the north. This dumps in a lot of extra instability in the atmosphere as the two lows merge…instability is good because it means more winds, more moisture, and more potential snowfall.

What this means for us shredding…

Right now neither system looks like it will dump a ton of snow, probably around an inch in both regions (naturally the higher mountains and areas that help concentrate snowfall will see a bit more). But the mix of stormy weather, cold air temps, and already increasing base depths will definitely enhance snow-making capabilities of the affected resorts.

Long-range Forecast

Right now it looks like the low affecting the Northwest will move off the rockies and push over the great lakes and start to lose some of its energy. Not much is expected from that system as it pushes further up into Canada later this week.

The next potential snowmaking system moves in around midweek…this will be another storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and pushing over the Pacific NW. Most of its energy is going to be focused on Washington (the State) and some of Northern Oregon as well as British Columbia.

The center of the storm will track across Canada but we can expect the lower latitude portions of the cold front to pass over most of the northern US states potentially brining another inch+ of snow for the high mountain areas in those regions as we head into the second part of the week.

The forecast breakdown

So while we aren’t seeing any storms completely dumping anywhere in the US anytime soon we are seeing enough activity that we can continue to build on the layers that have been laid down over the last couple of weeks. Keep your fingers crossed that ol’ mother nature can keep up the pace.

The snow forecast

This will be the new Snow Forecast...we are currently working on the layout and should have our first post up next week.